-Top cornerback on the market Dunta Robinson, formerly of the Texans, is reportedly meeting with the Atlanta Falcons today.  According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter this deal is likely going to get done, probably for about 5 years.  The Falcons need to upgrade their [...]]]> Good morning everyone– here’s whats up on the free agent market this morning:

-Top cornerback on the market Dunta Robinson, formerly of the Texans, is reportedly meeting with the Atlanta Falcons today.  According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter this deal is likely going to get done, probably for about 5 years.  The Falcons need to upgrade their pass defense, as they were 28th last year against the pass and 10th against the run.  With a potent young offense Atlanta’s defense is all that’s preventing them from getting to the playoffs again.  While Robinson may not be elite and makes errors in coverage, he’s still better than the average NFL corner.  This is a good pickup for the Falcons, depending on how much they pay Robinson.

-WR Nate Burleson has signed with the Detroit Lions.  He will now play opposite Calvin Johnson and the Lions hope he’ll be another usable weapon for Matthew Stafford.  According to ESPN, Burleson will get a 5 year deal for $25 million with $11 million guaranteed.  Burleson had an inconsistent career in Seattle, but did have his best season in Seattle under now Lions offensive coordinator Scott Linehan, when he had over 1,000 receiving yards.  I’m generally underwhelmed by Burleson because he hasn’t had a great year since 2004, so I’m not sure this is the answer the Lions were looking for.

-The Lions have made more moves– apparently coming to a deal with Titans DE Kyle Vanden Bosch (4 years, $26 million).  That’s a large deal for a DE in his early 30s, but this is once again a case of a player, once great, reuniting with an old coach to see if they can recapture the spark that made the player great.  Lions head coach Jim Schwartz was the defensive coordinator in Tennessee when Vanden Bosch had his best seasons.  The Lions appear committed to getting better and adding veteran leadership to their team.  If you’re a Lions fan there may be hope yet.

-Former Chargers TE Brandon Manumaleuna has signed a deal with the Bears.  Manumaleuna played TE wit Bears coordinator Mike Martz in St. Louis and is known more as a blocking tight end, which the the role Martz traditionally likes tight ends to play in his offense.  This deal could mean a trade is on the way for current Bears TE Greg Olsen, who is known as a pass catching tight end and has apparently already been told by Martz that he’ll need to focus on blocking next season.  Olsen is apparently not okay with that, which he shouldn’t be given that he is the Bears’ best pass catching weapon.  Maybe the Bears can get some picks back in this draft out of Olsen.

- The Cromartie to Jets trade is official.  Just wanted to reiterate the off field issues currently facing Cromartie– he apparently has 7 kids by 6 different women and 5 active paternity suits.  That’s Travis Henry levels.  Apparently the Jets aren’t worried about those issues and Cromartie’s lackluster play the last two years– let’s see if Rex Ryan can turn this guy around.

-Colts linebacker Gary Brackett isn’t leaving.  Apparently the Colts have worked out a 5 year deal with Brackett to keep him in Indy.  Brackett is the captain of the Colts defense, so it’s not shocking that they wanted him back and made a deal work.  Teams looking for an inside linebacker will now have to look at Karlos Dansby to fill that hole.

-Rumors are flying about Chad Pennington trying to resign wit the Dolphins.  Apparently both sides want to do a deal, but the agreement is being held up by Pennington’s demand for a no trade clause.  It’s apparent Pennington wants to stay in one place for the remainder of his career, but the Dolphins may be ready to turn the reins of the offense over to Chad Henne soon and certainly don’t want to be stuck with an expensive backup in a year or two if they decide they no longer want Pennington to start.  It’s therefore no shock  they don’t want to agree to a no trade clause, since they could get value for Pennington from plenty of QB hungry teams if they later decide they want to go with Henne.  We’ll see how that negotiation goes.

-Did I mention the Broncos signed former Cal great J.J. Arrington to a deal yesterday?  Arrington was signed by the Broncos last year before being cut after Arrington’s knee injury appeared more serious than thought.  Arrington sat out last year and is now back in the league.  Just sayin.

The New Orleans Saints are Super Bowl champs.  How crazy is that?  I can honestly say that I’m ok with being wrong with my Super Bowl pick.  Just a couple quick observations:

1- Sean Payton has balls the size of watermelons.  First, he goes for it on 4th down at the 1, when many would take [...]]]>

The New Orleans Saints are Super Bowl champs.  How crazy is that?  I can honestly say that I’m ok with being wrong with my Super Bowl pick.  Just a couple quick observations:

1- Sean Payton has balls the size of watermelons.  First, he goes for it on 4th down at the 1, when many would take the points.  That call was at least reasonable–I bet if the Saints made that field goal at that point in the game Peyton would have driven down the field for another score.  Once the Saints turned it over one the 1 Manning couldn’t run his great 2 minute drill which has clocked teams all season, and basically settled for trying to run down the clock.  Taking a possession away from Peyton Manning is huge.  Second, there was the most INSANE play call I have ever seen in the Super Bowl: the onside kick to start the second half.  If the Saints didn’t get that ball I think the game would have been over.  It would have been Manning on a short field, he’d probably score and all the momentum would have been with Indy.  I think the call was idiotic, but everyone is going to call Payton a genius now.  He’s a great game planner but wow, cohones.  That play took a posession away from Manning and changed the tone of the game.  Third, the dude goes for 2 later in the game.  Right call to make it a 7 point game, but another gamble.  Sean Payton had one of the most aggressive game plan’s I’ve seen in the Super Bowl, and it worked.

2- Drew Brees is phenomenal.  Nice dude, hugely involved in New Orleans, 32 completions on 39 attempts.  Couldn’t be happier for the guy.  He stepped up in his very first Super Bowl and played as well as Peyton Manning the whole game.  Manning made some ridiculous throws, but so did Brees.  Brees also had no turnovers.  I would want him to be my quarterback.

3- Peyton Manning’s pick may have been more shocking than the onside kick.  During that Colts drive where Manning threw the pick I never doubted that the Colts were going to score.  Peyton Manning has played with a sense of invincibility all season and has played flawlessly in every close game this year.  That pick may have been Reggie Wayne’s fault for not fighting for position under the receiver, but the fact that Manning’s throw not only didn’t result in a score, but went the other way was utterly shocking.  I think that indicates how good Manning is– everyone in the country probably thought he was going to score on that drive.  He may be the best QB of all time, regardless of the outcome here.

Congrats New Orleans, for a city that’s been through so much tonight’s celebration is well deserved.

The Colts Win If…Robert Mathis and the Colts corners step it up and Manning avoids the Saints’ pressure.  Much has been made of the injury to Dwight Freeney’s ankle this week, and with [...]]]> The Super Bowl is almost here and that means its time to break it down and make a prediction.  So here I go…

The Colts Win If…Robert Mathis and the Colts corners step it up and Manning avoids the Saints’ pressure.  Much has been made of the injury to Dwight Freeney’s ankle this week, and with good reason.  Freeney is super quick, gets around the corner to pressure the QB, and is fast enough to pursue the outside run.  It looks like Freeney will go, but the odds he’s effective are pretty low.  That means that Robert Mathis, the Colts’ other All Pro DE, needs to step his game up to get pressure on Drew Brees.  Without that pressure Brees and all his lanky, speedy receivers will be able to exploit the Colts’ young corners.  Since the pressure on Brees will likely decrease with Freeney out even if Mathis has a monster game, the Colts corners need to step it up.  They are going to have to cover receivers a little longer than they are used to, since the Saints’ receivers will be able to get deeper into their routes.  If Kelvin Hayden, Melvin Bullitt, and Jerraud Powers can step it up too and slow down the Saints passing attack then things will be going the Colts’ way.

The second key is Manning avoiding pressure.  The Saints are known to dial it up, and with a lackluster running attack the Colts need to pass to win.  The Colts offensive line needs to keep Manning from looking like Brett Favre did after his encounter with the Saints defense or risk ruining the timing of the Colts’ precision passing game.  If Manning has time he can carve up even the most elite defense, given all the weapons he has in the passing game.  If Peyton gets time and isn’t worried about getting hit he will score lots of points against an at best average Saints defense.

The Saints Win If…the defense gets its “remember me” hits and the offense stays balanced.  The Saints need to ensure that Manning does not have enough time to make all the throws.  As Saints C-Coordinator Greg Williams said this week, the Saints are planning on getting some “remember me” type shots on Manning to hurry his throws and get him off his timing.  The Saints were extremely effective doing this against Brett Favre– even though they had no sacks they made Favre hurry his throws and worry about getting hit, which may have been in Brett’s mind when he decided to chuck the ball up instead of run at the end of the 4th quarter.  If they can do it again, get Manning off his game, and get some turnovers in the process the Saints will be in good shape.

On the other side of the ball the Saints need to stay balanced.  One advantage the Saints have over the Colts is that they have a good speedy running game that can both attack the middle (Mike Bell/Pierre Thomas) and attack the outside (Reggie Bush/Pierre Thomas).  As I’ve said before, running keeps Manning off of the field and sets up big plays like the Jets were able to execute against the Colts in the first half of the AFC Championship game.  The Saints also have the ability to deploy their running backs in the passing game for big gains and confuse the Colts defense.  The running game can also minimize and jitters that Drew Brees may have about playing in his first Super Bowl.  Plus, in games where the Saints have run for over 150 yards this year they score 17 more points a game than those where they average under 90 yards a game.  The Saints probably need to score to hang in this one, and the more balance this offense has, the more potent its  play makers become.

And the Winner Is…WHO DAT DEY SAY GON BEAT DEM SAINTS?  The Colts, that’s who.  Colts 31, Saints 27.  I think the Colts’ experience in the big game will help them a lot in this one.  The Saints looked skittish in the NFC title game, and I think that can partially be attributed to nerves.  The Saints played pretty badly and still won the game thanks to turnovers– and I don’t see Manning making a crucial mistake like Favre at the end of the game or Addai/Brown fumbling as many times as AP.  Peyton Manning and many of the Colts players have played in the Super Bowl before– in the same stadium, in fact.  I wouldn’t be shocked if the Saints come out a bit nervous and make a mistake with the weight of an entire city on their shoulders and the euphoria over the Saints finally reaching the Super Bowl catching up to them.  If I had to pick which QB to have in this game, it would be Peyton Manning because he’s been on this stage before, and has shown an ability to carve up elite defenses during the playoffs.  Manning is now matched up against the 25th ranked defense in the league…I think this game goes well for him.  If the Jets weren’t able to effectively rattle Manning for 4 quarters I doubt the Saints can do it.  Brees has been spectacular this season, but I haven’t seen a body of work in the postseason to make me think he’s got the edge.   Peyton has got it done all season in close games and HASN’T LOST when he plays the whole game.  I doubt he’ll lose this one. 

***Sidenote: I am rooting for the Saints despite this pick.  I mean, who isn’t?  New Orleans has been through a lot in football and life, and there’s really no one to dislike on the Saints roster.  Drew Brees is a standup guy who really deserves a ring.  But, that being said, I really like the Colts too.  Should be a great game. 

Irrational Reason for Prediction…9 is in fact half of 18.  Looking at the match up  Manning > Brees.

1- The Colts young receivers aren’t wearing down.  Gone are the days when you could just stop Wayne and Clark and think that [...]]]> After a weekend hiatus, we’re back and ready to gloat.  After going 2-2 in the Divisional round, the Neighborhood was undefeated in Championship weekend picks.  Here are a couple observations from those games:

1- The Colts young receivers aren’t wearing down.  Gone are the days when you could just stop Wayne and Clark and think that was enough to beat the Colts.  Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie looked about as good as Wayne and Clark as the Colts basically dismantled the Jets defense.  It took Manning a while to figure out where the blitzes were coming from, but late in the 2nd quarter it was pretty clear that Manning knew what to do: find the blitz and throw the ball to Garcon and Collie.  Garcon has great speed and works well on the outside and Collie looks like the return of Brandon Stokely in the slot.  The Colts may not be great at running (last in the NFL) but they sure can pass it and I wouldn’t worry about the rookies wearing down or collapsing on the big stage after yesterday.

2- The Colts D can stuff the run.  Two weeks in a row, and two times the Colts have stuffed two of the league’s best running offenses.  The Colts are known for their speed rather than power, but they swarm to the ball and their sure tackling stopped the Jets rushing attack.  It certainly helped that Shonn Greene was injured, but the Colts defense turned it on the the second half.  If it weren’t for a sweet play action pass and a trick play then the Colts defense would have held the Jets to a field goal.  Pretty impressive.

3- This is what you get with Brett Favre.  Brett is good enough to lead a team to the NFC Championship game these days.  He’s good enough to rack up yards.  He’s good enough to keep it close, even get you to OT.  But, with the game on the line on the biggest stage these days he will try to force it–and a lot of the time that doesn’t work out.  Yeah, the Saints got to Favre a lot, and yeah his ankle was hurt, but that last INT was inexcusable.  Totally inexcusable.  That was like a throw some 15 year old kid playing Madden makes– the play is going one way and you try to chuck it across your body the other direction into traffic.  It’s certainly not Favre’s fault the Vikings lost, when you have 5 turnovers and almost the most fumbles ever in an NFC title game you can’t put the game on one play.  But, Brett Favre is going to set your franchise up for heart ache.  The Packers came to that realization when they let Favre go following his INT to send the Giants to the Super Bowl in his last game in a Green Bay uniform.  Now, Favre may have done the exact same thing in Minnesota.  Vikings fans, prepare yourself for waiting all the way through training camp…Favre is in the business of stringing teams on and breaking hearts and I’m sure he’s ready to do it again.

4- “The single most greatest event that ever happened in New Orleans”- Reggie Bush.  Yeah, its pretty nice that New Orleans is going to the Super Bowl.  Heck, I’ll probably root for them because New Orleans deserves something good, but let’s not over-inflate the importance of football.  The whole “the Saints saved New Orleans” narrative is stale.  The Saints did a lot of great things for the city, they reached out to the community and may have distracted a lot of people from the pain of Katrina in its aftermath.  But seriously, ask a lot of people in the Ninth Ward if they think this is the greatest thing to ever happen to New Orleans, or if the city has been saved and they probably won’t think so.  I’m just not looking forward to all the pre-Super Bowl fluff stories about the Saints saving the city when there’s still a lot left to do there.

5- The Saints didn’t play great.  They got outgained by almost 200 yards of offense.  The defense couldn’t stop the Vikings except for their timely turnovers (although that’s their M.O.).  The Saints are going to have to play a hell of a lot better if they want any shot of beating the Colts in Miami.  The Saints need to be careful not to feel star struck about being in the Super Bowl, otherwise they are toast.  The running game needs to get it together to keep the offense balanced and the defense needs to get ready for a lot of passing.  The Colts won’t hand this game to the Saints like the Vikings did– I can’t imagine a too many men on the field call against the Colts at any point in the game, let alone the end of the game.  They are too well coached.  Jim Caldwell is not Brad Childress, who really isn’t a very good coach.  The Saints have to pick it up if they want to win the Super Bowl.

6- Did anyone else see Garrett Hartley after the game?  He looks like some emo high school kid, not an NFL player.  Wow.  Nice necklace dude.

The Colts Win If…they can jump [...]]]> This year’s AFC Championship features the top seeded Indianapolis Colts against the streaking New York Jets.  The Jets come in with the NFL’s no. 1 defense and rushing attack and the Colts come in without losing a game where their starters played and the league’s MVP.  Let’s break it down:

The Colts Win If…they can jump out to an early lead and make the Jets pass. The Jets have managed to win in the playoffs with stifling defense and pounding the rock with Shonn Greene and Thomas Jones.  The Colts need to get the ball into the hands of Mark Sanchez and force the rookie to make mistakes.  The Jets offense relies on making the occasional big play off the play action and controlling clock with the run.  There are two ways the Colts can get them away from  that: get an early lead or stuff the run.  To get an early lead Peyton Manning will need to solve the good Jets secondary of Darrelle Revis, Lito Sheppard, and Kerry Rhodes.  Peyton is a superb passer (duh) and the Colts will need to have all their receiving weapons rolling to get past these guys.  Peyton Manning also needs to recognize where pressure is coming from out of Rex Ryan’s 3-4 defense and his offensive line needs to block accordingly to give Manning time.  If he can do that, Sanchez has to win the game and a rookie on such a big stage is guaranteed to make mistakes.  The Colts also will win if they can stuff the run, which they did very effectively against another of the league’s great rushing attacks last week with their speedy defense.  The Jets have a more talented and physical offensive line than the Ravens, with 3 Pro Bowl quality linemen (Alan Faneca, D’brickashaw Ferguson, and Nick Mangold), so the Colts will need to use their speed to get to the ball and not get manhandled at the line of scrimmage.  If the Colts can force the Jets to pass, turnovers will result and they will be able to win this game.

The Jets Win If…they can run the ball and get pressure on Manning. Running the ball gets two things for the Jets– it (1) sets up play action passes and makes the Sanchize’s throws a lot easier and (2) keeps Peyton Manning off the field.  If the Jets can run at the left side of their offensive line effectively (where Faneca and Ferguson are) and wear down a smaller Colts defensive line then they will be in good shape.  If the Jets wear down the Colts offensive line, the possibility of a big run like Shonn Greene’s big TD last week becomes a possibility, and the likelihood of costly turnovers massively decreases.  The other key is for the Jets defense to get pressure on Manning.  When Peyton can sit in the pocket he generally doesn’t miss.  Peyton really only loses if you can get to him and get him off rhythm.  Otherwise, Peyton will hit Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne all day long.  The Jets defense especially needs to get pressure on Manning in no huddle/two minute drill situations where Peyton is usually at his best.  To do this, Rex Ryan will need to dial up some different type of blitzes and pressures so that Manning doesn’t know where the rush is coming from.  Otherwise, Peyton can easily identify where the blitz is coming from when he calls the play at the line.  If the Jets keep Manning in check and keep the ball out of Sanchez’s hands, they can easily win this game.

And the Winner Is…The Indianapolis Colts. I can’t bet against Peyton Manning and feel way more comfortable picking against Mark Sanchez.  Peyton Manning has never lost to a Rex Ryan coached defense (not counting the last meeting between these two where Manning was benched in the third quarter with the lead).  Manning now has some more tape to study on how the Jets will play him after their last meeting, and I think that means the Colts will score some points.  Also, I like the way the Colts played against the Ravens’ run game last week and think they are capable of stopping the run this week with their speedy defense.  Mark Sanchez is going to be under a lot of pressure in this game in the unfriendly confines of Lucas Oil Stadium and I bet he turns the ball over a few times.  The Colts have also been so good in close games this season that I think they aren’t necessarily at a disadvantage if this game is close.  The end result: Colts 20, Jets 13

Irrational Reason for Prediction...if Peyton Manning gets to the Super Bowl, then the fourth QB alternate will be playing in Pro Bowl.  I want to see who the hell that is, so bring it.

Turns out defense still does win championships.  The Jets stunned the Chargers 17-14, led by rookie Shonn Greene’s 128 yards.  The Jets played the exact way they needed to to win the game– great defense (forcing two Rivers INTs and the fewest amount of points the Chargers have scored all season), steady play by the [...]]]>

Turns out defense still does win championships.  The Jets stunned the Chargers 17-14, led by rookie Shonn Greene’s 128 yards.  The Jets played the exact way they needed to to win the game– great defense (forcing two Rivers INTs and the fewest amount of points the Chargers have scored all season), steady play by the Sanchize where he didn’t have to do much (100 yds, 1 INT), and a great rushing attack (169 yds).  Nate Kaeding apparently still sucks in the playoffs, as he went 0-3 on kicks (3-9 all time in the playoffs).

The key to the Jets winning games is opportunistic offensive  plays, limiting INTs by Sanchize, and forcing turnovers.  The interesting thing about the Jets victory is now they have to face the Colts, who basically allowed them into the playoffs by laying down in the game against the Jets week 16.  Could this be karma for giving up on a perfect season?  I think the football gods say: probably not.  Phillip Rivers is a whole different QB than Peyton Manning, his arrogance and willingness to chuck if up is different from Peyton’s perfectionist approach to the game and pinpoint accuracy.  I really like this matchup though- we’ll see just how good this Jets defense really is.

As for the Chargers, their window of opportunity to win a championship may just have closed.  They do have a good young receiving corps and a young Pro Bowl QB, but the running game is getting old with LT over the hill and the defense aging as well.  With the weakness of the AFC West they probably will make the playoffs again next year, but this was likely their best shot at the title, coming off an 11 game winning streak and with everything coming together.  The AFC West will only improve, and the Chargers are only getting older and slower.

I wonder how many hot dogs Rex Ryan will have to celebrate tonight…

It’s time for the obligatory break down of this weekend’s playoff games and for me to put my money where my mouth is and make some predictions.

Arizona Cardinals vs. New Orleans Saints

The Breakdown: Coming off of their crazy shootout at home to beat the Green Bay Fighting Aaron Rodgers in OT, Arizona heads to the [...]]]>

It’s time for the obligatory break down of this weekend’s playoff games and for me to put my money where my mouth is and make some predictions.

Arizona Cardinals vs. New Orleans Saints

The Breakdown: Coming off of their crazy shootout at home to beat the Green Bay Fighting Aaron Rodgers in OT, Arizona heads to the Superdome in New Orleans to face off against the top seeded Saints.  The Saints come into this game having lost 3 straight, including losses to Dallas and the lowly Bucs at home before taking the foot off the gas in week 17.  Despite the losing streak, I think this game matches up pretty well for the Saints.  The Cards couldn’t stop ANYBODY last week at home, despite a wealth of defensive talent on the roster (Adrian Wilson, Dominque Rodgers Cromartie, etc.) and the Saints have just as many, if not more weapons than the Packers.  The Saints can beat you with the run with Mike Bell, Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush, or with Drew Brees and his plethora of passing weapons.  Although the Cards did in fact shut down the Packers for most of the first half of last weekend’s game, it’s clear that they can have their problems stopping an elite offense.  Plus, the Saints are at home in the Superdome, which will be loud and make it hard for the Cardinals to consistently excute like they did last week at home.  Plus, you never know when Kurt Warner will go out and bomb like his 5 INT game earlier in the year (although it’s not very often that happens), Anquan Boldin looks to be out this week, and Drew Brees is always consistent.  The bye week also had to give Gregg Williams some extra time to scheme defensively and Sean Payton to get the offense together.  I think this will be a shootout, but homefield advantage will have the Saints marching to the NFC Championship.

Irrational Reason for Pick:  With USC dominating the news–Reggie Bush is slightly less of a bust than Matt Leinart, Saints win.

Prediction: Saints 34, Cardinals 31

Dallas Cowboys vs. Minnesota Vikings

The Breakdown: The premier matchup of the divisional round has Real America’s Team vs. Brett Favre.  Listening to the mainstream media you would think Minnesota has no chance because they only have one active player on the roster, Brett Favre.  Turns out through my investigation I’ve found out they in fact have some other players, including this guy Adrian Peterson who will occasionally run over a linebacker or 3 and embarass the hell out of them and this other guy Percy Harvin, the offensive rookie of the year.  Apparently Jared Allen and Pat Williams play for them on defense too, who knew?  In all seriousness, the Vikings definitely have some playmakers and haven’t lost at home yet this year.  However, Tony Romo and the Cowboys are so hot right now, the defense, led by DeMarcus Ware, is getting after the QB and Dallas has one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL featuring Felix “Chris Johnson, Jr.” Jones.  I have a feeling the Cowboys get a fast start in this one based on their momentum, the Vikings are still shaking of rust from the bye, and the end result is Brett Favre will be forced into gunslinger mode as he thinks he has to pass and force the ball to win the game.  Favre will audible out of one too many of Brad Childress’s running plays  to pass and will turn the ball over to the Dallas D.  Also the Vikings defense has not looked as formidble since the team lost MLB E.J. Henderson to injury.  He’s really the quarterback of the defense and it shows– the Vikings pass rush has been almost nonexistent since he’s been out.  I see Dallas beating the Vikings in this one at the Metrodome.

Irrational Reason for Pick: Brad Childress looks like he should work for 1-800-DENTIST with that headset he wears.  I hate the dentist.

Prediction: Cowboys 27, Vikings 21

Baltimore Ravens vs. Indianpolis Colts

The Breakdown: After crushing Tom Brady and the Patriots last week the Ravens won the right to try to beat the best quarterback in the NFL, Peyton Manning, and the Colts this week.  The Colts are coming off of a losing streak after resting their starters the last two games of the season in hopes of getting healthy for a Super Bowl run.  History isn’t great for the Colts when they use this strategy, as the last time they cruised into the playoffs with a bye they got throttled by the then 6 seed Pittsburgh Steelers.  While I personally didn’t like the strategy and think it probably will make this game closer than it should be, I like the Colts to beat the Ravens.  Last week the Ravens forced the Pats to play their game by coming out with some huge plays (84 yd TD run by Ray Rice, INT of Brady) and then could run their ball control, rely on the D type of gameplan.  While that worked against a depleted Patriots team, I don’t think that will work against the most disciplined QB in the game with all of his weapons who have legitimate big play potential every play.  Even if the Ravens do have the ability to keep the game close, the Colts had 5 consecutive comebacks at one point this season and tight games have been their bread and butter.  With Joe Flacco slightly hobbled I think the Ravens will need to lean on the run and Indy knows it– so they can focus their defense around stopping the run game.  When Flacco does throw he hasn’t been great lately, and with Mathis and Freeney on the ends coming after the QB, I think Flacco gets in trouble if they have to throw to win.  I can’t see Peyton Manning allowing the Colts to lose this game and I think the Ravens offense can’t keep up given how inconsistent they’ve been all year.

Irrational Reason for Pick: If the Ravens win all next week the phrase “Wacco for Flacco”  will be used at least 200 times.  The universe cannot allow that to happen.

Prediction: Colts 21, Ravens 17

New York Jets vs. San Diego Chargers

The “favorites” in the postseason square off with the hotter than hell San Diego Chargers.  The Jets do have some things going for them in this matchup.  They are number 1 in total defense and passing defense which will help counteract Phillip Rivers and the Chargers air attack.  The Jets also have a great running game with Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene.  San Diego doesn’t do a great job of covering the tight end, and the Jets have a good one in Dustin Keller.  However, the big liability is the Sanchize.  Although he hasn’t turned the ball over in the last 3 games, he certainly hasn’t played a team with as much talent as the Chargers in that timeframe, since the last two weeks of the season he played against backups.  The Chargers haven’t scored less than 20 points all year, and I really see the Jets having a hard time putting up that many points just running the ball.  If the Chargers strike quick, or start scoring anywhere near what they’ve been doing lately, the Jets are going to have to throw and that creates huge liabilities for them.  Rookie QB vs Phillips Rivers does’t bode well.  I just don’t think the Jets have had to play a team as elite as the Chargers in quite some time and I’m not willing to bet against the team that’s won 11 games in a row.

Irrational Reason for Pick:  The Jets don’t even play in New York, man.  They play in New Jersey.  What good has ever come from that state (beside the Sopranos)?

Prediction: Chargers 28, Jets 17

1. San Diego Chargers: Winners of 11 straight games makes them the hottest team in the NFL. Phillip Rivers is [...]]]> Now that the Aaron Rodgers Show (aka Green Bay Packers) are out of the playoffs there’s a big shakeup in the playoff power rankings. Here’s how I rate the remaining teams in the playoffs and why:

1. San Diego Chargers: Winners of 11 straight games makes them the hottest team in the NFL. Phillip Rivers is tossing the ball all over the field and the defense looks revitalized. Plus, with Darren Sproles in the return game they’re a threat in all three phases.

2. Indianapolis Colts: Yeah, they’re on a losing streak, but I’ll chalk that up to Curtis Painter and not playing the starters. This team could be undefeated and would be number one if they didn’t take their foot off the gas at the end. Defense is fast, and they’ve got this guy named Peyton Manning. He’s pretty good.

3. Dallas Cowboys: 2nd hottest team in the NFL, dominated a pretty good Eagles team two weeks in a row. DeMarcus Ware scares the hell out of me and I’m just watching the game on TV. Tony Romo looks sharp and Dallas has 3 legitimate starting running backs on the roster. Clicking on all the right cylinders, but can they overcome their previous playoff failures?

4. Minnesota Vikings: Although they didn’t finish strong, they looked good in the last game of the season. Their defense is getting Pat Williams back at tackle, and they still have a potentially dominant defensive line– although the secondary has been getting pushed around a bit. The offense has one of, if not the best, running backs in the NFL, and Brett Favre is still tossing it around. But the looming question is can Favre prevent the gunslinger in him from throwing 3 INTs in the near future?

5. New Orleans Saints: Lots of weapons, but struggling over the last 3 games. 3 weeks ago I’d have them ranked second, but the inexplicable loss to the Bucs and the thrashing by Dallas really makes you wonder. The defense is a big question right now, but with all that firepower and a bye they could put it back together.

6. Arizona Cardinals: The Dr. Jekyll/Mr. Hyde factor means they have to be ranked lower. When their offense is clicking they are SCARY good (see 51 points vs a good Packers D). Kurt Warner is at the helm, which always gives this team a shot. But can the defense stop anybody?! Sometimes yes, sometimes no…which is why you never know what you’re going to get with the Cards.

7. Baltimore Ravens: Getting back to their old school ways of running the football, Flacco hasn’t had to do much lately (see 4/10 passing Saturday). Their defense can get pumped and get it going and if they play like they did against the Pats again they are scary. But again, this team has been inconsistent all year, so who knows how they come out against Indy.

8. New York Jets: The Sanchize didn’t hurt them last week, but that’s the big risk with this team. The defense is dominant and they can run the ball to win– IF, and that’s a BIG IF, they don’t turn it over.

Also, this doesn’t mean I think one of these lower ranked teams won’t win– that’s about the matchup, which I’ll be talking about later in the week, and this is about momentum and talent in a vaccum.