It’s time for the obligatory break down of this weekend’s playoff games and for me to put my money where my mouth is and make some predictions.
Arizona Cardinals vs. New Orleans Saints
The Breakdown: Coming off of their crazy shootout at home to beat the Green Bay Fighting Aaron Rodgers in OT, Arizona heads to the Superdome in New Orleans to face off against the top seeded Saints. The Saints come into this game having lost 3 straight, including losses to Dallas and the lowly Bucs at home before taking the foot off the gas in week 17. Despite the losing streak, I think this game matches up pretty well for the Saints. The Cards couldn’t stop ANYBODY last week at home, despite a wealth of defensive talent on the roster (Adrian Wilson, Dominque Rodgers Cromartie, etc.) and the Saints have just as many, if not more weapons than the Packers. The Saints can beat you with the run with Mike Bell, Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush, or with Drew Brees and his plethora of passing weapons. Although the Cards did in fact shut down the Packers for most of the first half of last weekend’s game, it’s clear that they can have their problems stopping an elite offense. Plus, the Saints are at home in the Superdome, which will be loud and make it hard for the Cardinals to consistently excute like they did last week at home. Plus, you never know when Kurt Warner will go out and bomb like his 5 INT game earlier in the year (although it’s not very often that happens), Anquan Boldin looks to be out this week, and Drew Brees is always consistent. The bye week also had to give Gregg Williams some extra time to scheme defensively and Sean Payton to get the offense together. I think this will be a shootout, but homefield advantage will have the Saints marching to the NFC Championship.
Irrational Reason for Pick: With USC dominating the news–Reggie Bush is slightly less of a bust than Matt Leinart, Saints win.
Prediction: Saints 34, Cardinals 31
Dallas Cowboys vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Breakdown: The premier matchup of the divisional round has Real America’s Team vs. Brett Favre. Listening to the mainstream media you would think Minnesota has no chance because they only have one active player on the roster, Brett Favre. Turns out through my investigation I’ve found out they in fact have some other players, including this guy Adrian Peterson who will occasionally run over a linebacker or 3 and embarass the hell out of them and this other guy Percy Harvin, the offensive rookie of the year. Apparently Jared Allen and Pat Williams play for them on defense too, who knew? In all seriousness, the Vikings definitely have some playmakers and haven’t lost at home yet this year. However, Tony Romo and the Cowboys are so hot right now, the defense, led by DeMarcus Ware, is getting after the QB and Dallas has one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL featuring Felix “Chris Johnson, Jr.” Jones. I have a feeling the Cowboys get a fast start in this one based on their momentum, the Vikings are still shaking of rust from the bye, and the end result is Brett Favre will be forced into gunslinger mode as he thinks he has to pass and force the ball to win the game. Favre will audible out of one too many of Brad Childress’s running plays to pass and will turn the ball over to the Dallas D. Also the Vikings defense has not looked as formidble since the team lost MLB E.J. Henderson to injury. He’s really the quarterback of the defense and it shows– the Vikings pass rush has been almost nonexistent since he’s been out. I see Dallas beating the Vikings in this one at the Metrodome.
Irrational Reason for Pick: Brad Childress looks like he should work for 1-800-DENTIST with that headset he wears. I hate the dentist.
Prediction: Cowboys 27, Vikings 21
Baltimore Ravens vs. Indianpolis Colts
The Breakdown: After crushing Tom Brady and the Patriots last week the Ravens won the right to try to beat the best quarterback in the NFL, Peyton Manning, and the Colts this week. The Colts are coming off of a losing streak after resting their starters the last two games of the season in hopes of getting healthy for a Super Bowl run. History isn’t great for the Colts when they use this strategy, as the last time they cruised into the playoffs with a bye they got throttled by the then 6 seed Pittsburgh Steelers. While I personally didn’t like the strategy and think it probably will make this game closer than it should be, I like the Colts to beat the Ravens. Last week the Ravens forced the Pats to play their game by coming out with some huge plays (84 yd TD run by Ray Rice, INT of Brady) and then could run their ball control, rely on the D type of gameplan. While that worked against a depleted Patriots team, I don’t think that will work against the most disciplined QB in the game with all of his weapons who have legitimate big play potential every play. Even if the Ravens do have the ability to keep the game close, the Colts had 5 consecutive comebacks at one point this season and tight games have been their bread and butter. With Joe Flacco slightly hobbled I think the Ravens will need to lean on the run and Indy knows it– so they can focus their defense around stopping the run game. When Flacco does throw he hasn’t been great lately, and with Mathis and Freeney on the ends coming after the QB, I think Flacco gets in trouble if they have to throw to win. I can’t see Peyton Manning allowing the Colts to lose this game and I think the Ravens offense can’t keep up given how inconsistent they’ve been all year.
Irrational Reason for Pick: If the Ravens win all next week the phrase “Wacco for Flacco” will be used at least 200 times. The universe cannot allow that to happen.
Prediction: Colts 21, Ravens 17
New York Jets vs. San Diego Chargers
The “favorites” in the postseason square off with the hotter than hell San Diego Chargers. The Jets do have some things going for them in this matchup. They are number 1 in total defense and passing defense which will help counteract Phillip Rivers and the Chargers air attack. The Jets also have a great running game with Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene. San Diego doesn’t do a great job of covering the tight end, and the Jets have a good one in Dustin Keller. However, the big liability is the Sanchize. Although he hasn’t turned the ball over in the last 3 games, he certainly hasn’t played a team with as much talent as the Chargers in that timeframe, since the last two weeks of the season he played against backups. The Chargers haven’t scored less than 20 points all year, and I really see the Jets having a hard time putting up that many points just running the ball. If the Chargers strike quick, or start scoring anywhere near what they’ve been doing lately, the Jets are going to have to throw and that creates huge liabilities for them. Rookie QB vs Phillips Rivers does’t bode well. I just don’t think the Jets have had to play a team as elite as the Chargers in quite some time and I’m not willing to bet against the team that’s won 11 games in a row.
Irrational Reason for Pick: The Jets don’t even play in New York, man. They play in New Jersey. What good has ever come from that state (beside the Sopranos)?
Prediction: Chargers 28, Jets 17
