AFC Championship Preview and Prediction

This year’s AFC Championship features the top seeded Indianapolis Colts against the streaking New York Jets.  The Jets come in with the NFL’s no. 1 defense and rushing attack and the Colts come in without losing a game where their starters played and the league’s MVP.  Let’s break it down:

The Colts Win If…they can jump out to an early lead and make the Jets pass. The Jets have managed to win in the playoffs with stifling defense and pounding the rock with Shonn Greene and Thomas Jones.  The Colts need to get the ball into the hands of Mark Sanchez and force the rookie to make mistakes.  The Jets offense relies on making the occasional big play off the play action and controlling clock with the run.  There are two ways the Colts can get them away from  that: get an early lead or stuff the run.  To get an early lead Peyton Manning will need to solve the good Jets secondary of Darrelle Revis, Lito Sheppard, and Kerry Rhodes.  Peyton is a superb passer (duh) and the Colts will need to have all their receiving weapons rolling to get past these guys.  Peyton Manning also needs to recognize where pressure is coming from out of Rex Ryan’s 3-4 defense and his offensive line needs to block accordingly to give Manning time.  If he can do that, Sanchez has to win the game and a rookie on such a big stage is guaranteed to make mistakes.  The Colts also will win if they can stuff the run, which they did very effectively against another of the league’s great rushing attacks last week with their speedy defense.  The Jets have a more talented and physical offensive line than the Ravens, with 3 Pro Bowl quality linemen (Alan Faneca, D’brickashaw Ferguson, and Nick Mangold), so the Colts will need to use their speed to get to the ball and not get manhandled at the line of scrimmage.  If the Colts can force the Jets to pass, turnovers will result and they will be able to win this game.

The Jets Win If…they can run the ball and get pressure on Manning. Running the ball gets two things for the Jets– it (1) sets up play action passes and makes the Sanchize’s throws a lot easier and (2) keeps Peyton Manning off the field.  If the Jets can run at the left side of their offensive line effectively (where Faneca and Ferguson are) and wear down a smaller Colts defensive line then they will be in good shape.  If the Jets wear down the Colts offensive line, the possibility of a big run like Shonn Greene’s big TD last week becomes a possibility, and the likelihood of costly turnovers massively decreases.  The other key is for the Jets defense to get pressure on Manning.  When Peyton can sit in the pocket he generally doesn’t miss.  Peyton really only loses if you can get to him and get him off rhythm.  Otherwise, Peyton will hit Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne all day long.  The Jets defense especially needs to get pressure on Manning in no huddle/two minute drill situations where Peyton is usually at his best.  To do this, Rex Ryan will need to dial up some different type of blitzes and pressures so that Manning doesn’t know where the rush is coming from.  Otherwise, Peyton can easily identify where the blitz is coming from when he calls the play at the line.  If the Jets keep Manning in check and keep the ball out of Sanchez’s hands, they can easily win this game.

And the Winner Is…The Indianapolis Colts. I can’t bet against Peyton Manning and feel way more comfortable picking against Mark Sanchez.  Peyton Manning has never lost to a Rex Ryan coached defense (not counting the last meeting between these two where Manning was benched in the third quarter with the lead).  Manning now has some more tape to study on how the Jets will play him after their last meeting, and I think that means the Colts will score some points.  Also, I like the way the Colts played against the Ravens’ run game last week and think they are capable of stopping the run this week with their speedy defense.  Mark Sanchez is going to be under a lot of pressure in this game in the unfriendly confines of Lucas Oil Stadium and I bet he turns the ball over a few times.  The Colts have also been so good in close games this season that I think they aren’t necessarily at a disadvantage if this game is close.  The end result: Colts 20, Jets 13

Irrational Reason for Prediction...if Peyton Manning gets to the Super Bowl, then the fourth QB alternate will be playing in Pro Bowl.  I want to see who the hell that is, so bring it.